The Proof of Ages

As you may know, I am a man who is constantly astounded by the ingenuity of ancient astronomers, and I have as part of my career relied upon a belief in their talents in order to ascertain the dates of events in the past. Naturally, then, as an academic, I must believe in the proof that these astronomers were more than simple men, but were great men possessed of genius, whose measurements are reliable.

It is true that few people can read Egyptian hieroglyphs, Mayan pictograms or Sumerian cuneiform, and that I must rely for the most part upon their translations, providing an extra barrier of proof to be overcome. It is, however, also true that each of these cultures composed – independently or otherwise – what is called the ‘Saros cycle’, which is an accurate calendar that can predict such events as solar and lunar eclipses. While to the layman this must seem bewilderingly complex, it is, in fact, a very simple thing to achieve, because they follow precise patterns.

The remarkable achievement, therefore, is not that they were able to calculate this – all that is required is observation – but that their records were such that they were able to observe the period of those cycles. Lunar eclipses are much more common than solar eclipses, and are visible to the whole of the night side of the Earth, which should make their task simple, except for the reason that there are a variety of types of lunar eclipse, depending on its completeness (which is to say, how much of the Moon is occluded by the Earth’s shadow). This, naturally, requires a much longer period of observation.

Consider, then, that in these civilisations, the average age of even the wealthy may not exceed 50 or 60, and that a full cycle lasts around 18 years, and, further, that to accurately predict all eclipses requires a sequence of Saros cycles that forms a Saros series, lasting between 1200 and 1500 years... Needless to say, the fact that their calculations are accurate in predicting both lunar and solar eclipses makes it a simple, awed response to appreciate the beauty of their measurements.